Wednesday, October 25, 2006

Feeling low on energy these days?

Just thought that I'd share a resource with you guys, since it took me a long time to find it.

Everybody and his cat is now telling you to buy energy stocks and other energy-based securities, either now or in the near future, which they're beaten down and cheap. Today I saw a new article recommending natural-gas stocks because they should be near seasonal lows right now.

Well, I generally only make short-term buys if the long term looks good to me also, so that if the short term doesn't work out, I can always fall back onto the long term. It took a while, but I finally found some information - educated guesses, really, but at least educated guesses which may be honest - on the longer-term connections among supply, demand, and price in an interesting part of the energy universe, natural gas in North America. The article was published by a Canadian government body, and makes some guesses out to 2020. Just don't forget that these are educated guesses, nothing more. If you don't believe me, just punch "peak oil" into your favorite search engine. Or think of how much faith you yourself put in weather forecasts, especially forecasts of the weather three months from now - or three years.

Thursday, October 12, 2006

Intel, the Worst Company on Earth. I'm buying the stock (sort of).

Well, I just put in an order to buy some TOI. Jon Markman is optimistic about Intel, mainly because of Windows Vista, Prudential and Goldman Sachs seem optimistic about information technology, and a lot of people are optimistic about stocks for the next few months generally, either because of a post-tax-selling rally or because of a sudden belief in a soft landing. And I've got too much cash.

I've had some success over the past few years buying these strange "structured products" under just these circumstances: a beaten-down underlying stock where I can see some catalysts for change, and the professionals are beginning to hint at them too. As usual, about all I can say this time is that either it will work or it won't.

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